May 7 2008 1:16PM | Permalink | Email this | Comments (0) |
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Harvard remodeling guru Kermit Baker took a look at which markets are most and least vulnerable to a downturn in the remodeling market today as part of an NAHB teleconference on the remodeling market featuring Baker, NAHB chief economist David Seiders and NAHB Remodelers Chairman Lonny Rutherford.

The Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies came up with the list by analyzing home prices and existing home sales. It's not exactly rocket science -- those are the two biggest indicators for remodeling. Those markets that had the biggest increase in prices and smallest decrease in sales were the strongest or least vulnerable to a downturn; those with the biggest decrease in prices and sales were the most vulnerable. No real surprises on either list, but here you go:

Most vulnerable to a downturn:

• Detroit
• Las Vegas
• Phoenix
• Almost everywhere in California and Florida

Least vulnerable:

• Seattle
• Portland
• Charlotte
• Pittsburgh
• All the major metros in Texas

Overall, NAHB estimated that the remodeling market will decline 7 percent this year in inflation-adjusted dollars (following a 4 percent decline in '07) before a slight improvement in 2009. Seiders said NAHB's long-term forecast calls for continued growth, with the market to return to the record 2006 levels by 2012 or 2013.