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Blog
Thursday, October 30, 2008
Is green building dead?
Oct 30 2008 10:41AM | Permalink | Email this | Comments (10) |
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By Jonathan Sweet
Oil prices continue to drop as the world deals with this little crisis we've got going on. From a peak of almost $150 this summer, oil's trading at around $64 a barrel today. That's led some to speculate that the push for green may die down with it.
The New York Times writes about this is as it applies to driving -- people are already starting to drive more and some places are seeing an uptick in truck sales.
“Driving habits die hard, and they can reincarnate quickly,” said Christopher R. Knittel, an economist at the University of California, Davis, who studies gasoline demand. In the late 1980s, he added: “As soon as gas prices fell, there was no real incentive to drive less anymore. If oil prices continue to fall and the economy recovers, I would expect consumers to return to wanting larger and less fuel-efficient cars.”
So how does this relate to housing? There's no doubt that the mainstream growth in green remodeling has come from energy efficiency. For most consumers, the interest in green stops at the pocketbook. That's been confirmed in numerous studies, including our own green surveys.
So if home energy costs decline enough, so will the interest in green remodeling. It's pretty simple. And Reuters reports that heating costs should be lower this winter than last winter.
This is the argument the "green is a fad" proponents have been making ... that if energy prices drop, this wave of interest in green will sputter out, much like similar activites following the oil embargoes of the 1970s.
And you know what, they're right.
But here's the difference from 30 years ago. It seems unlikely in the longterm that prices will stay low. A recovery in the worldwide economy will put increased pressure on prices as demand increase and supply decreases. According to a draft version of the report in the International Energy Agency's annual report, published in the Financial Times earlier this week, the world will continue to struggle to meet increased demand. And most projections are still that oil will come close to or surpass $100 a barrel next year.
CNBC also makes the argument today that the drop in oil prices is not likely to deter green development, because it will be a way for the new president to create jobs and improve the economy.
Your thoughts?
Reader Comments
at 11/2/2008 4:23:58 PM, Illinois Remodeler said:
It's not dead, but the economy has put it on life support!
at 11/13/2008 1:55:00 PM, Craig Schneider said:
Absolutely ridiculous notion! "green" is not just about making money back through renewables, nor has the drop in sweet crude made everyone's pocket book fat again. The argument fizzles out when logic is applied to it. Why is oil low; the economy is bad. What is the best benefit of green(according to your survey), money; what do people need during this economic time; money.
Green is here to stay and people in this industry who buy into the fad idea will quickly find that they are behind the times. Just wait a few years, all these people building green now will have provoked ICC to impliment green features into their code. At that point, green will no longer just be the right thing to do. It will be the ONLY thing to do!
at 11/13/2008 2:14:05 PM, ed said:
this is just one more example of how we, as a people, are so reactionary. we have a hard time planning for the future, especially when it just the right thing to do. when times are good we're all fat and sassy...and when times get tough we scramble for a quick fix...i.e. the "big 3"
green is not only here to stay, it will be the standard for all construction within the next 10 years. the word green will not even be dicussed because all codes will mandate the principles...as it should be
at 11/13/2008 2:51:09 PM, Jonathan Sweet said:
I'll admit, I was playing a little bit of devil's advocate here, but I'm glad to see a few responses. I think we're headed in a direction where green is more widely accepted, but I think that (except for energy efficiency) we're just not there yet.
at 11/14/2008 7:36:46 PM, distinctav said:
If building green costs 2% more then thats about $6k for a typical home. Big whoopie! Most builders waste way more than that through typical operational inefficiencies. I you have the option, and the cost difference is low, go with the more sustainable, long-term solution. Hopefully "Green Hype" is dead.
at 1/9/2009 11:06:36 AM, Gerald said:
"If building green cost 2% more [than conventional contruction])..."
WOW! Who can build green (and it truely be built "Green" for only 2%? I would like to meet them. It traditionally cost me at least a minimum 13%+ to build "Green".
I agree with Jon, we just aren't there yet. It will go away or the true meaning of "Building Green" will be twisted and warped far away from it's original intent.
at 1/22/2009 11:54:41 AM, Woodman said:
Keep in mind that consumers (like businesses) have their own self-interests in mind. They might find time to make decisions that are good for the community at the same time, but they are essentially driven to do things which benefit themselves first.
The "meaning of green" has to be taken broadly, in this light. If a homeowner is aware that they'll save money by selecting a specific type of appliance or light that happens to be marketed as green, and they like it, then that equation works, and won't go away when oil prices are low.
The consumer is smarter than we often perceive them to be. They are broadening their awareness and scope of information on products and their effect on their homes, budgets and now, health.
Watch for them to be focusing more on the health side. Like better indoor air quality, and reducing voc's (volatile organic compounds) by specifying cleaner grades of products, like formaldehyde-free hardwood plywood.
These types of self-interest factors are not tied to oil prices, or really, any prices - especially when it's a personal issue like health.
at 1/27/2009 11:01:16 AM, Stevem@dtarchitects.com said:
Saying green building is dead is like saying indoor plumbing is a fad! At Dominick Tringali Architects we are working with numerous municipalities, assisting them with rebuilding housing within their cities with Neighborhood Stabilization Program dollars to create affordable, ENERGY EFFICIENT, and SUSTAINABLE housing (for under $100k). We are also building green on all of our custom homes, analyzing energy consumption and illustrating to our customers the benefits of their operation paybacks to go green. Did I mention this is going on in the Detroit market where we have been in a recession since 2001? Check out Dominick Tringali Architects website for more details.
at 5/21/2009 12:33:53 AM, pradbarbara said:
Engaging internet site!! Will visit once more!
at 10/24/2009 7:34:37 PM, Steave said:
Cool story as for me. It would be great to read a bit more about that matter.