Jun 23 2008 1:17PM | Permalink | Email this | Comments (0) |
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The Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies released it's The State of the Nation's Housing 2008 report today. It's a look at the reasons behind the current crisis and what the future holds for housing. I just finished reading the 44-page report so you won't have to (that's just the kind of guy I am), but feel to click over if you'd like to digest it for yourself. 

Short version: Things are lousy now, but they're going to get better. Most notably, the population is going to continue to grow through natural progression and immigration, leading to more demand for homes:

[U]nless the economy enters a sharp, prolonged recession that dampens immigration or slows household formation, the current cycle in and of itself is unlikely to diminish the long-run growth of households.

 We should see an additional 14.4 million households from 2010 to 2020, Harvard projects, compared to 12.6 million from 1995 to 2005. Those will come from more single households, as people are getting married later and are more likely to get divorced than in the past and minorities, who are expected to make up 35 percent of households by 2020, up from 25 percent in 2000.

All told, it will take a while to get inventory and prices back in line, but once that happens, things should look up. Harvard didn't take a stab at predicting a "bottom" to the market (which is really kind of a strange idea anyway, because of regional variations), but did note that it's not unusual to see several false starts and stops as builders try to guess when to start building again.