Professional Builder
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No one wants to see market conditions worsen, but recent developments indicate the downturn will cut deeper before the economy heals.
Some economic forecasts show things improving in the fourth quarter, but I think it is unlikely to happen because the global crisis is worsening rather than stabilizing. Furthermore, the governmental stimuli will take considerable time to implement and ultimately affect job growth and consumer confidence. The eleventh hour changes by the House of Representatives to the housing portion of the stimulus bill and the clumsy rollout of a bureaucratic loan modification program all point toward more difficult times in housing.
The unthinkable failure of 12 percent of all mortgages is deepening this economic mess, and it will require the swift reduction of foreclosures to fix it. This means we need to increase the number of home sales and not have the government modify and buy down mortgages. Also note that the only manufacturing sector that exists in every city of this great country is housing, which dwarfs the auto, steel and even oil industries to put people to work in "shovel—read jobs." Unfortunately, this administration does not see housing as a first tier solution but rather a symptom of the economic crisis. Prepare accordingly:
| Author Information |
| Paul Cardis is CEO of Avid Ratings, a research and consulting firm specializing in customer satisfaction for the home building industry. You can reach him at paul.cardis@avidratings.com. |
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