May 21 2007 7:23AM | Permalink | Email this | Comments (5) |
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Congress is set to renew the debate on immigration reform but it is clear that there is still no consensus on what to do. Indeed, all sides in this debate have hardened their attitudes against their opponents. Note that it is “all” sides not “both” sides. Expect a repeat of the last debate. There will be lots of noise but no action. Congress will seem to do something by passing a few minor items just as they did after the last debate. But these will be filled with so many “ifs”, “ands” and “buts” that very little changes. Remember the border fences and hiring or border agents legislated at the end of the last debate? Not much happened here so these ideas are back in the new proposal.

Congress and the President are engaged in election season posturing. The latest proposal was crafted outside of the usual legislative committee structure which angers many members of Congress and confirms that there is no consensus within Congress on what to do about immigration.

The few details released so far on the not yet written legislation, reportedly to be about 400 pages, is a laundry list of ideas from all sides. It contains something for everyone to like — and to dislike. Note that nothing has been said so far about what happens to the four million or more new illegal immigrants expected to arrive in 2007-08 or the millions of current illegal immigrants without a clean criminal record, $5,000 in cash or the willingness to stand up and identify themselves. A large share of these people have been working in construction.

Nonetheless, construction market managers should monitor the debate because some tidbits will likely be legislated and the debate will, somehow, change immigration enforcement practices and the willingness of prospective immigrants to come here.

Residential builders and their subcontractors have the most risk but many materials suppliers have a substantial number of illegal workers. Suppose the current proposal passes. This would normalize many existing workers. This is not all positive. They will demand to be paid the legal worker wage and benefits. This may also cause some people not eligible for legal status to flee and trim the supply of new immigrant workers. While the proposal promises 400,000 temporary workers, contractors are unlikely to get many of them because farm, factory and professional employers with more regular work schedules are better positioned to get them.