Feb 6 2007 11:47AM | Permalink | Email this | Comments (1) |
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I never consider a forecast finished and ready to share until I have spent a few moments contemplating the recent contents of my mailbox. Not the one in the computer or in the telephone but the lopsided steel one with the door that will not stay closed at the end of my driveway.

When I thought about the unsolicited mail I received over the last week I felt more comfortable about economic and construction market forecasts that some would consider too optimistic. Indeed, the process made me a little concerned that I was not optimistic enough. Here is the mail that I got, some addressed to my wife, and what I think it means for the economic outlook.

There were thirteen credit card offers. Most I did not open but a few were cleverly disguised so I had to see what was inside. All of these were appealing to people with large balances who no longer had their current card’s initial discounted interest rate even if it was because of late payments. If lenders want people like this for customers the economy still has abundant liquidity. Consumer will keep buying even if they have use other people’s money.

I also received three invitations to buy lots, homes or condos in resort developments at a special low price. I have never heard of any of these resorts and had never indicated any interest in such a purchase. But they found me although two of them though my name was “current resident”. Yes, there are too many condos for sale and prices have a long way to fall. This is negative for housing starts but I have been expecting a deep decline in starts for a long time.

The mail also included four invitations to retirement planning seminars with dinner at a local restaurant. I thought about accepting one of the invitations. That restaurant has great deserts. But then I remembered several recently downsized neighbors that appeared a few weeks later as financial planners, complete with initials after their name. Still the explosion in the number of financial planners lately is testimony that lots of people have substantial assets to invest. Businesses seeking credit should be able to find it and keep investment growing quickly.

Finally, I got five offers for home repair or remodeling services. Where were these people a year ago when I had to be my own plumber and electrician? I have a pretty optimistic outlook for residential remodeling and I am not changing it.