Jun 26 2006 12:00AM | Permalink | Email this | Comments (1) |
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The immigration debate in Washington has stalled but this does not mean a return to “normal” for illegal immigrants and their employers. You should now expect the “paths to citizenship” to be delayed and restricted to fewer people that the Senate immigration bill envisioned. And you should expect more aggressive enforcement of current immigration laws. The immediate net impact on construction will be a modest reduction in the supply of unskilled and semi-skilled labor as well as a modest decline in new home demand by immigrants now more nervous about their deportation risks. There is also a risk of fewer immigrants in the US which reduces space demand for all types of buildings.

These are the result of a fundamental change in public attitudes about immigration practices due to the spotlight shining briefly on the token enforcement by the federal government of current immigration laws. People overwhelmingly believe that the laws, whatever they may be, should be enforced.

This is not about immigration. It’s about the social contract. The public knows that a comfortable, civilized society can not exist when obeying some laws is optional. Americans welcome immigrants but not at the expense of social order. The Senate plan to legalize long term residents had widespread appeal because it would bring people out of the shadows and require them to obey all of our laws or suffer the consequences. But the companion provisions in the Senate plan to make it more difficult to illegally enter and remain in the US were met with widespread skepticism because of the sorry record of Homeland Security and the Federal courts in immigration law enforcement. The public does not trust the Congress, the courts or the President on this subject.

The media spotlight on immigration revealed that fewer than five employers were charged with hiring illegal immigrants in the last year. Most people believe that this number should be in the thousands. The Social Security Administration has clearly been prohibited from blowing the whistle on employees with phony Social Security numbers. VISA can verify a credit card number and reject a fraudulent transaction in a few seconds. Immigration judges permit hundreds of thousands of people who fail to appear at their deportation hearings to quietly disappear without pursuing them.

People are no longer willing to leave immigration law enforcement to the federal government. States, cities and employers are beginning to do what the federal government will not do. And some federal officials will now feel that they can enforce the law instead of covering their eyes to protect their jobs. Increasingly, it will no longer be politically incorrect and a bad career decision to ask job applicants, suppliers and public service recipients about their citizenship status.

The consequence for employers is that you may be asked by customers to prove that you have verified the social security numbers of your employees. You risk losing some business if you keep passing on to employees those “bad number” letters from the Social Security Administration without doing anything about it and telling yourself “it’s not my job to verify citizenship or visa status”.