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2003 Outlook
John Burns
January 1, 2003
Professional Builder
Sept. 2002 Affordability | Sept. 2002 Demand | Sept. 2002 Supply | Sept. 2002 Housing Cycle Barometer | Sept. 2002 12-Month Job Growth | Sept. 2002 Single-Family Permits as a % of Peak | ||
Excellent Outlook | |||||||
Riverside-San Bernardino | Good | High | Very Low | 3.8 | 2.7% | 68% | |
Charlotte | Excellent | High | High | 0.0 | 1.3% | 93% | |
Jacksonville | Excellent | High | High | 2.3 | 1.0% | 100% | |
Good Outlook | |||||||
Philadelphia | Excellent | Very Low | Very Low | 2.3 | (1.0%) | 69% | |
Hartford | Excellent | Very Low | Very Low | 1.7 | (1.8%) | 41% | |
Albuquerque | Excellent | Moderate | High | 0.0 | 0.3% | 100% | |
Nashville | Excellent | Moderate | High | 0.0 | 0.3% | 96% | |
San Antonio | Excellent | Moderate | High | 1.1 | 0.2% | 100% | |
Washington | Excellent | Low | Moderate | 2.0 | (0.5%) | 86% | |
Las Vegas | Good | High | High | 2.8 | 1.7% | 98% | |
Milwaukee | Good | Moderate | Moderate | 3.8 | 0.4% | 75% | |
Cleveland | Excellent | Low | High | 2.5 | (0.6%) | 91% | |
Cincinnati | Excellent | Low | High | 0.6 | (0.7%) | 93% | |
Dallas | Excellent | Low | High | 0.0 | (0.4%) | 97% | |
Columbus, Ohio | Excellent | Low | High | 1.9 | (0.3%) | 99% | |
Indianapolis | Excellent | Low | High | 0.0 | (0.7%) | 92% | |
Kansas City | Excellent | Low | High | 1.9 | (0.5%) | 95% | |
Orlando | Excellent | Low | High | 2.4 | (0.4%) | 100% | |
Moderate Outlook | |||||||
Providence | Moderate | Moderate | Very Low | 4.7 | 0.4% | 45% | |
West Palm Beach | Moderate | Moderate | Very Low | 5.0 | 0.9% | 68% | |
Detroit | Excellent | Very Low | Moderate | 2.3 | (1.4%) | 83% | |
Houston | Good | Moderate | High | 3.7 | 0.0% | 100% | |
San Diego | Poor | High | Very Low | 6.8 | 1.8% | 53% | |
Atlanta | Excellent | Very Low | High | 1.6 | (2.6%) | 100% | |
St. Louis | Excellent | Very Low | High | 0.5 | (1.3%) | 92% | |
Baltimore | Moderate | Low | Very Low | 4.0 | (0.6%) | 61% | |
Los Angeles | Moderate | Low | Very Low | 4.3 | (0.7%) | 35% | |
Oakland | Moderate | Low | Very Low | 5.3 | (0.5%) | 69% | |
Charleston, S.C. | Moderate | High | High | 5.2 | 1.3% | 100% | |
Cautious Outlook | |||||||
Salt Lake City | Good | Very Low | Moderate | 2.7 | (1.5%) | 79% | |
Portland, Ore. | Moderate | Moderate | High | 4.3 | 0.7% | 92% | |
Miami | Poor | High | Moderate | 6.0 | 1.4% | 76% | |
Chicago | Good | Very Low | High | 3.9 | (1.5%) | 100% | |
Phoenix | Good | Very Low | High | 2.8 | (1.1%) | 100% | |
Fort Lauderdale | Poor | Low | Very Low | 6.3 | (0.7%) | 58% | |
Orange County, Calif. | Poor | Low | Very Low | 6.0 | (0.2%) | 57% | |
Sacramento | Moderate | Low | High | 5.4 | (0.3%) | 100% | |
Minneapolis | Moderate | Low | High | 4.6 | (0.8%) | 95% | |
Tampa | Moderate | Low | High | 5.0 | (0.5%) | 96% | |
Denver | Moderate | Very Low | Moderate | 5.2 | (1.9%) | 83% | |
Worried Outlook | |||||||
New York | Poor | Very Low | Very Low | 6.0 | (2.1%) | 46% | |
Boston | Poor | Very Low | Very Low | 9.9 | (1.6%) | 49% | |
San Francisco | Poor | Very Low | Very Low | 5.7 | (3.4%) | 56% | |
San Jose | Poor | Very Low | Very Low | 5.5 | (3.5%) | 37% | |
Affordability - Based on our analysis of each market's history of housing costs (down payment + mortgage payments) compared with income | |||||||
Demand - Based on current job and population growth | |||||||
Supply - Based on current single-family supply levels compared with the market's historical supply levels | |||||||
© 2008, Reed Business Information, a division of Reed Elsevier Inc. All Rights Reserved.