Demand for roofing is forecast to grow 2.4 percent per year through 2014 to 274.5 million squares, valued at $17.9 billion. While gains will be modest, they will represent a reversal of the declines over the 2004-2009 period. Advances will be driven by an expected rebound in housing starts from the depressed levels in 2009. Although housing starts will remain below the level reached in 2005, the recovery will fuel above-average gains in the residential roofing market through 2014. These and other trends are presented in Roofing, a new study from The Freedonia Group, Inc., a Cleveland-based industry research firm.
The residential reroofing market will continue to account for the largest overall share of roofing demand in 2014. Total residential roofing demand accounted for just under 60 percent of the market in 2009, with reroofing applications representing the vast majority of residential roofing sales. Demand for roofing in the nonresidential building construction market is forecast to remain constant through 2014. Increasing construction expenditures in the office and commercial and institutional construction markets will promote gains. However, a decline in demand for roofing in the industrial construction market will offset advances.
Asphalt shingles are the most popular roofing product owing to their dominant position in the large residential roofing market. Demand for asphalt shingles will rise through 2014, fueled by rebounding housing starts. Laminated asphalt shingles, which totaled only one-third of the shingle market in 1999, are projected to account for 80 percent of asphalt shingle demand in 2014. In the long term, the increasing use of laminated shingles will constrain replacement demand, as these products can have lifespans more than twice that of conventional asphalt shingles.
Roofing tile and other roofing products are anticipated to see the most rapid demand gains through 2014, reflecting the low 2009 base. Demand for roofing tile will be driven by the rebound in housing starts and the continued increase in the population of the West and the South regions where roofing tile is most commonly used. Demand for green roofing products, such as composite shingles and photovoltaic roofing, is forecast to advance more than four percent annually through 2014. Gains will be led by rising interest in environmentally friendly roofing products that reduce building utility costs.
(published 02/2010, 379 pages) is available for $4,900 from The Freedonia Group, Inc.
, 767 Beta Drive, Cleveland, OH 44143-2326.