Athens, Ga., Jan. 21 — Turbulent times characterized by plummeting pine sawtimber prices could soon be over for timber sellers. A new stumpage price forecast published by Forisk signals climbing prices for pine sawtimber in the US South beginning in 2010. The ForiskFORECAST pine sawtimber price forecast and "Forecasting Timber Prices" workshop provide insights for timberland owners, investors, and wood procurement managers in planning future pricing and management strategies as lumber and plywood markets recover.
Despite positive indications for the US South as a region, results vary across the 11 states covered in Forisk's models. For example, between 2010 and 2011, Georgia pine sawtimber prices rebound 17% while prices in North Carolina increase less than 1% over the same timeframe according to the ForiskFORECAST. "The key is understanding the local, state-specific relationship - the elasticity - between wood demand and prices," explains Dr. Tim Sydor, Forisk's Forest Economist. "Pine sawtimber demand declined 32.6% South-wide between 2006 and 2009. Yet these declines varied by state. In the next few years, as lumber demand recovers, our historic wood demand and price analysis suggests a strong stumpage price recovery in several Southern states, while others will take longer to respond."
"Timber markets are uniquely local," says Brooks Mendell, President of Forisk. "Our clients are less concerned about national prices, and directly focused on their local options. South Georgia differs from North Alabama which differs from East Texas. Our basin studies, workshops and the ForiskFORECAST focus on the idea that successful investments in forestry or wood-using facilities rely on detailed knowledge of localized markets."
The ForiskFORECAST-Pine Sawtimber predicts annual pine sawtimber stumpage prices across the US South through 2020. It is available as an interactive Excel model or as individual forecasts for 11 states. For more information, visit
www.foriskstore.com and click "Stumpage Price Forecasts."
In addition, two upcoming short courses on February 10th from Forisk – "Timber Market Analysis" and "Forecasting Timber Prices" – teach specific skills and strategies for forestry, procurement, bioenergy, investment and appraisal professionals who must evaluate pricing and demand in specific local wood markets today and looking forward. To learn more about these Atlanta-based courses, visit
www.forisk.com and click on "Continuing Education."
About Forisk Consulting: Forisk specializes in analyzing the supply and demand characteristics of local wood and timber markets. Forisk produces analytical products and provides research and educational services to operating, finance and strategy executives and analysts making decisions associated with timber REITs, timberlands, and wood-using bioenergy and manufacturing facilities.
