Recent Trends In New Residential Permits for 2000’s Top 25 Metro Areas

Byline:

Daryl Delano, Cahners Economics

Publication Date:

Wed, 2001-03-28 18:00

Article Image:

Recent Trends In New Residential Permits for 2000's Top 25 Metro Areas (Preliminary Year-to-Date through February 2001, and % Change From 2000's Two-Month Totals)
	2000 Rank	# of units Permitted Year-to-date	% Change Compared to Year Ago
1	Atlanta, GA	11,446	15.5%
2	Phoenix-Mesa, AZ	7,335	2.6
3	Washington DC	6,492	16.2
4	Chicago, IL	5,012	14.2
5	Dallas, TX	4,312	-1.5
6	Houston, TX	5,423	13.5
7	Las Vegas, NV	5,264	17.9
8	Denver, CO	3,064	-24.7
9	Orlando, FL	2,957	-13.6
10	Charlotte, NC	3,749	2.8
11	Minneapolis, MN	2,155	-22.3
12	Riverside-San Bernardino, CA	3,490	21.9
13	Tampa, FL	2,690	-9.7
14	Raleigh-Durham, NC	3,202	24.5
15	Seattle, WA	2,579	-17.0
16	Detroit, MI	2,096	-7.1
17	New York, NY	3,016	33.9
18	Austin, TX	1,972	-19.0
19	Los Angeles, CA	4,405	93.5
20	Philadelphia, PA	1,714	-24.2
21	Sacramento, CA	2,492	1.1
22	San Diego, CA	3,097	52.3
23	Indianapolis, IN	2,166	39.5
24	Columbus, OH	1,765	-1.1
25	Portland, OR	2,292	8.9
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce; Professional Builder

Seven of 2000's top ten areas (in terms of sheer volume of permitted new residential construction) were able to build upon their year-earlier totals through the first two months of 2001. Atlanta remains - by a margin of 56% over its nearest competitor so far this year -- the nation's leading volume metro area for home building. And 15.5% more permits were issued for new home construction in the metro Atlanta market during January and February of this year than over the first two months of 2000, so momentum has yet to wane.

Among the rest of 2000's top ten, only the Denver, Orlando, and Dallas metro areas lost ground through February 2001 compared to the first two months of last year. However, for all areas - whether "winners" or "losers" so far in 2001 - it's much too early in the year to place much stock in the permit numbers as definitive indicators of market trends. Given the vagaries of both the weather and the permit issuance/recording process, 2001 housing market trends for local markets won't really become clear until we have about four months worth of permit data.

Among the 15 metropolitan areas that made up the balance of 2000's "Top 25" home building markets, eight recorded more housing permits during January-February 2001 than over the comparable period last year. However, four metropolitan areas - Minneapolis, Seattle, Austin, and Philadelphia -- registered declines of 10% or more in permit activity, according to preliminary data for two months of this year. Despite electricity shortages, almost all of California's metro areas continued to record solid gains in permit volume through the first two months of 2001. And in the rest of the country, two areas - Raleigh-Durham and Portland - appear to be on the comeback trail after recording sharp declines in permit activity between 1999 and 2000.

Economic Indicators Index (Feb. 2001):

Building Materials Price Inflation - February

Housing Starts - February

Consumer Confidence by Region - February

New Residential Building Permits by Region - February

Recent Trends in New Residential Permits for 2000's Top 25 Metro Areas