In this exclusive one-hour webinar, Ivy Zelman, the leading home building and building products research analyst on Wall Street, discusses recent dynamics in the home building, mortgage, home improvement, and non-residential construction sectors and offers her firm’s outlook and forecast for 2011. This free webinar will take place Wed, Feb 16, 2011 at 1:00 PM CST.
The housing markets in 17 states will experience housing inflation in 2011, according to a forecast by Housing Predictor. Although the prediction shows that the overall housing market should make a slight recovery this year, these particular markets are poised for more-substantial growth because they were less affected by the mortgage lending and foreclosure crisis.
The mortgage-interest deduction, a pillar of the nation’s long-held support for housing and the American Dream, is under assault, say NAHB observers who make it their full-time job to stay on top of the shifts in thinking in Washington. According to NAHB chief lobbyist Joe Stanton, the mortgage-interest deduction is in the mix this spring as a new Congress meets for the first time and begins wrestling with ideas for reducing the deficit. Some economists estimate that removal of the deduction would lower home values another 15 percent.
New single-family homes sales were at a seasonally adjusted rate of 329,000 in December, based on estimates released by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. The rate rose 17.5 percent between November and December, but was 7.6 percent below the December 2009 rate.
Both the homeownership rate and homeowner property vacancy rate fell in the last quarter of 2010, the U.S. Census Bureau announced in its latest Housing Vacancies and Homeownership report. The homeownership rate for the last quarter was 66.5 percent, lower than both the previous quarter and the final quarter of 2009.
Existing home sales rose in December for the fifth time in the last six months, indicating a recovery as the housing market continues to stabilize. According to the National Association of Realtors, existing homes sales jumped 12.3 percent last month, reaching a seasonally adjusted rate of 5.28 million.
Remodelers are more optimistic about 2011 as remodeling market gets stronger
Home prices continue to weaken, as eight cities hit their lowest levels since the peak in 2006 and 2007, according to the latest S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices. The data showed that in November Atlanta; Charlotte, N.C.; Detroit; Las Vegas; Miami; Portland, Ore.; Seattle; and Tampa, Fla., all dropped to levels below spring 2009 lows.
Housing starts declined in the last month of 2010, reaching their slowest pace since October 2009, new Commerce Department data show. On a positive note, building permit issuance rose 16.7 percent in December 2010, which might indicate that builders are upbeat about the upcoming spring selling season.
The National Association of Home Builders’ Housing Market Index remained steady this month at 16 for the third month in a row, indicating that home builders’ confidence is still low. Perceptions on current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months remained the same as last month. Perceptions of prospective buyer traffic gained one point.