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EmailPCA Forecast: Foreclosures will outweigh home sales growth in 2012
Portland Cement Association Chief Economist Ed Sullivan says 2013 before we can expect a housing recovery
February 8, 2012
ORLANDO - Job growth will lead to more home sales this year, but delayed foreclosures will overshadow those gains, according to the Portland Cement Association's chief economist.
That was the forecast from Ed Sullivan as the International Builders' Show here Wednesday.
"There are two competing trends - job recovery and the foreclosure catch-up," Sullivan said.
Sullivan is forecasting 17 percent growth in single-family new home sales in 2012, followed by 22 percent growth in 2013.
Based on trends over the last few years, foreclosures should have peaked in 2011, but instead dropped by more than 1 million from 2010. Delays caused by the robo-signing scandal, foreclosure moratoria and other issues have delayed the recovery, prolonging the impact of foreclosures, Sullivan said.
The PCA estimates there are some 1.5 million delayed foreclosures that will hit the market in 2012 and 2013, but pent-up demand will eventually lead to a recovery, probably in 2014, Sullivan said.
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