HOMES STILL TOO PRICEY FOR MEDIAN FAMILY HOUSING COSTS OUTPACE INCOMES

CRAIG GUILLOT bankrate.com

One of the worst things about the real estate market today is that there doesn't seem to be any silver lining behind that big black cloud.

Normally, you'd think that dramatically falling prices would make homeownership a reality for more moderate-income families.

But even with homes more affordable, the median price is still out of reach for a median-income family in many markets, according to "Paycheck to Paycheck: Wages and the Cost of Housing in America," a study by the Center for Housing Policy, or CHP, in Washington.

Comparing housing costs in more than 200 metropolitan areas with the wages earned by workers in 60 occupations, the study found that homeownership is unaffordable for all of the five fastest-growing occupations - registered nurses, retail sales people, customer-service representatives, food-preparation workers and office clerks. Even registered nurses, who typically have high salaries, were unable to buy a median-priced home in 108 of the markets.

"Even with the housing downturn, the drop in prices still just isn't enough for many workers in traditional backbone occupations to afford houses," said Rebecca Cohen, a CHP research associate.

In many parts of the country, the housing increases have outpaced wage growth for almost a decade. Census data released in 2006 revealed that between 2000 and 2005, housing costs grew sharply.

The CHP study based affordability on the metrics that a family or person should not spend more than 30 percent of household income on rent and utilities while homeowners shouldn't spend more than 28 percent of income on the mortgage, taxes and insurance. The most recent National Association of Realtors report projected a January 2008 median home price of $198,700 and median family income of $59,858. With a 20 percent down payment, a 30-year mortgage at 6.2 percent would mean $973.59 monthly for principal and interest. Assuming $3,600 per year for insurance and property taxes, the monthly payment is $1,273.59 - barely within the $1,396 maximum threshold, without factoring in closing costs.

Lenders have often used formulas such as this to gauge a person's lending capacity, but property taxes and insurance can vary drastically by region. Cohen said these affordability metrics can also show different stories based on the number of dependents in the house.

"A benchmark is just that and should be taken with a grain of salt. If a single person spends 27 percent of their income on housing, they might be doing great, but if you're a family with five kids, certainly the amount you're able to comfortably spend without cutting into your budget will vary," Cohen said.

Sean Snaith, who holds a Ph.D. in economics and is director of the Institute for Economic Competitiveness at the University of Central Florida, said affordability evaporated in some areas that saw rapid price increases over the past five years. In many parts of the country, home prices have risen to such levels that many middle-class residents are forced to move farther outside the city radius and expand their commutes. He points to Washington's expansion into Virginia and Maryland and Los Angeles' constant expansion inland as prime examples.

"If you want that single-family home, swing set and the American Dream, the reality is that in major metro areas, most of us will have to commute in order to enjoy that," Snaith said.