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Welcome to the Recovery

By clicking into the new electronic Housing Giants, you've just exponentially increased your access to the information that will drive the next housing boom.

Bill Lurz
February 22, 2008
GIANTS

The big rebound starts here. By clicking into the new electronic Housing Giants, you've just exponentially increased your access to the information that will drive the next housing boom.

You may chuckle at that and say, "Nothing is driving the housing industry anywhere right now!" But if you think about it logically, you know that kind of negative psychology is a big part of what's wrong with housing markets across the country. The current housing down cycle is the first one to be affected by electronic media. The slump is now in its third year. It won't go on forever. You will see recovery coming sooner this time, because we'll show you the handwriting as soon as it appears on the wall. When will the slump end?

We don't know yet, but there are already signs. As you read this digital issue of HG, you'll learn in CEO Spotlight that new Taylor Morrison Homes leader Sheryl Palmer thinks the next boom will kick in by 2010, and she's already positioning Taylor Morrison to capitalize on it by targeting echo boom buyers.

Technical Olympic USA senior executive Mark Upton recently resigned from that troubled public home builder. You might think he's just diving off a sinking ship. He does say he plans to spend a lot of time this year on the ski slopes. But I talked to him and learned that he has a small company that will buy, hold and develop land.

He also plans to "facilitate the flow of capital back into play as the market bottoms." (This is the same guy who once opened a Phoenix Division for Engle Homes and moved it from building 600 to 2,500 homes a year in two years.)

He also told us to look for big changes on the equity side of the industry later this year. "By the end of '08, you'll see more sales of assets — and building companies," he says. "But it won't be builders doing the buying. It will be outside equity funds wanting to buy builders at the bottom of the market."

We already see a major movement of big investment funds getting into the land business, taking large chunks off stressed builders' books. Eventually, they'll need building companies to add value to those sites. If you see a jump in mergers and acquisitions this fall, that's a sure sign the bottom of the market is probably already in the rearview mirror. The first deal will trigger more. Good news is just as contagious as bad news. Perception is reality.

If the medium really is the message, this housing slump is going to end in the blink of an eye because digital media will push the recovery at warp speed. It may already be happening. Read on. Your next issue of Housing Giants is less than two weeks away. If recovery is coming, it's already here.

 

Have you heard what Bill wrote on his blog, Ear to the Ground?

On production builders' zeal for townhouses:

"Better watch it ... we could get into an oversupply situation in entry-level townhouses in a lot of markets."


© 2008, Reed Business Information, a division of Reed Elsevier Inc. All Rights Reserved.

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