First American Projects Nearly 3% Home Price Increase By November

First American CoreLogic projects its LoanPerformance Home Price Index (HPI) to decline 0.23% in the winter, but increase 2.94% excluding distressed sales, by November 2010.

January 25, 2010

First American CoreLogic projects its LoanPerformance Home Price Index (HPI) to decline 0.23% in the winter, but increase 2.94% excluding distressed sales, by November 2010.

National home prices declined 5.7% year-over-year in November, according to First American. That’s an improvement from October’s year-over-year decline of 7.6%, but prices also declined 0.2% in November compared to October. Excluding distressed sales, prices declined 5.1% year-over-year in November, compared to a 5.7% decline in non-distressed sales prices in October. Including distressed transactions, the HPI has fallen 30.0% nationally through November from its peak in April 2006. Excluding distressed properties, the national HPI has fallen 21.8% from the same peak.

- Nevada experienced the worst year-over-year price decline at 22.5%, followed by Arizona (14.9%), Florida (13.7%), Michigan (12.6%) and Idaho (11%).
- Excluding distressed sales, the worst five states for year-over-year price declines were only slightly different. Nevada (19.7%) still holds the top spot, followed by Arizona (14.1%), Florida (12.3%), Michigan (10.6%) and West Virginia (9.6%).
- The markets with the largest year-over-year declines are all located in the Midwest and Great Lakes areas, led by Detroit (13.1%), Sault Ste. Marie (11.0%), Saginaw (9.7%) and Kalamazoo (7.8%).
- In the Sun Belt, prices are down the worst in Las Vegas (6.5%), followed by Phoenix (-3.3%), Reno (-3.3%) and Orlando (-2.5%).

For the 45 largest core based statistical areas (CBSAs), the HPI is projected to rise an average of 1% per market through November 2010.

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