Print
EmailFannie Mae Economist Berson Forecasts Strong Recovery
Fannie Mae economist David Berson concedes that the U.S. economy is in a recession but says it likely will be short and that the recovery, by the second half of 2002, should be strong.
Berson says his post-terrorist-attack forecast is based on four factors, including "near-historic" low levels of unsold housing inventory. Second is a high level of "monetary and fiscal stimulus already making its way through the system." Third, the impact of refinancing attributed to lower mortgage rates and lower energy costs should be a major boost. And fourth, the war seems to be playing out in a controlled fashion.
"This is all highly dependent upon what happens with the war on terrorism," Berson says. "Those are things we cannot easily predict. But we should see a strong recovery in the second half of 2002."
According to Berson, the third and fourth quarters of this year will evidence a downturn, but the first quarter next year should be flat, with rising numbers thereafter.
He is looking for 1.56 million housing starts for all of 2001, a drop of almost 6%. Single-family starts will amount to 1.22 million this year and 1.16 million in 2002.
The silver lining is the supply of unsold housing. It is tracking at 4.2 months. In past recessions it has exceeded eight months.
More like this
- Fannie Mae tests foreclosure-prevention plan in Florida
- 70 Percent of Americans Surveyed Tell Fannie Mae It's a Good Time To Buy a Home
- Fannie Mae: Americans’ attitude toward housing market worsens
- Fannie Mae report: Americans less confident in housing market
- Obama’s mortgage-market reform plan calls for winding down Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac
RELATED ARTICLES
Flawed, unnecessary, and costly regulations burden small home builders by raising expenses and slowing the home building process. These hurdles ultimately rob builders of...
Towns experiment with different approaches to stimulate new-home building during the recovery; Home builder bonds still draw speculative grades; Ontario’s...
Search Our Buyer's Guide
Reference Library
Professional Remodeler’s annual Market Leaders list, which identifies the top...
With demand for custom design, remodeling, and renovations at its highest level since 2005, ...
Normandy Remodeling converts confined kitchen into sprawling galley.
Each year, the National Kitchen and Bath Association surveys its members to identify the latest...
Each year, the National Kitchen and Bath Association surveys its members to identify the latest...
