May 9 2007 11:41AM | Permalink | Email this | Comments (2) |
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The latest forecast for the remodeling market, announced Tuesday, is a mix of good and bad news. Although the NAHB is now forecasting 1.7 percent growth to $232 million this year, in inflation-adjusted numbers we'll actually see a 1.5 percent decline in the market, according to NAHB's chief economist David Seiders. (He revealed that number during a conference call Tuesday, but you'll notice it didn't make it into the news release.)

Next year should be a little better, with a 2.7 percent increase predicted (a 0.5 percent decline in "real" dollars). The good news is the market is still strong coming off a record 2006, but it's not going to really grow again until 2009. On the other hand, it's still a lot better than new construction.

What's been interesting for me is that everyone I talk to seems to be having a great year. A number of remodelers have told me this should be their best year ever. So why aren't the numbers lining up with the anecdotal evidence? Most likely, it's the bottom feeders who are being hit the worst. In many markets, any remodeler could find work the last few years. With the modest declines, there's still plenty of business for the best remodelers in most markets. More than one remodeler has suggested to me that a slowdown might be a good thing as it eliminates some of the "pick-up truck guys" from the market.

That said, I'm curious what you're seeing in your local markets. Is the market up or down? Are you having trouble finding work or are things still cruising along? What's the future look like?