Housing Starts - September

September 2000 total housing starts were at a seasonally-adjusted annualized level of 1.530 million units, a slight 0.3% increase from the August total. The September starts pace this year was 6.0% lower than during September of 1999.

Single-family homes were started at a 1.233 million annualized rate during September 2000, 14.4% below the peak level recorded during the final month of last year. Single-family starts were down 1.3% between August and September. The September 2000 single-family starts pace was 4.4% lower than during September 1999.

Starts in multifamily buildings improved over the month, rising to an annualized rate of 297,000 units during September. This was up 7.6% from August''s disappointing pace. However, this September''s multifamily starts annualized total as 12.1% lower than the 338,000-unit annual rate recorded during the same month of 1999.

Total starts through the first three-quarters of 2000 were estimated at 1,232,300 units - a modest 3.5% drop from the total for January-September 1999. Through September 2000, single-family starts had faded to a level 4.3% below the total for the first nine months of last year, and the number of units started in multifamily buildings was off a marginal 0.5% from the total recorded during the first three quarters of 1999.

Regionally, two of the four regions of the country recorded increases in their annualized housing starts pace between August and September of 2000. The starts pace in the Northeast increased by 8.1% over the month, while starts in the much larger West region were up an even stronger 8.6%. The starts pace in the Midwest region eased 2.6% between August and September, while starts in the South were off a more substantial 4.4% over the month.

Through the first nine months of 2000, all four regions of the country recorded slightly fewer housing starts than through the first three-quarters of 1999. The South recorded 4.0% fewer housing units started through September of this year compared to the same period of 1999. January-September starts in the Northeast and Midwest were off 3.7%, while the West recorded 2.5% fewer new homes started through the first three quarters of 2000 than during January-September 1999.

Building permit trends have been weaker than starts trends through the first three-quarters of 2000. During September, however, the number of permits issued nationwide rose a solid 1.3% at the same time that starts rose only a marginal 0.3%. Through the first nine months of this year, though, total permits have declined 4.1%--more than the 3.5% starts drop-so as a leading indicator of housing activity the permit trend still suggests a further loss in market momentum in the months ahead.

The pace of single-family new home sales fell 3.0% between July and August, while sales of existing homes surged 9.3% following an even-steeper loss the month before. However, through the first two-thirds of this year about 5% fewer single-family homes (new and existing) were sold than over January-August of 1999.

The average interest on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage continued to ease, after peaking at 8.52% during May of this year. The September 2000 average of 7.91% was only slightly higher than the 7.82% rate recorded in September 1999 - but still considerably higher than the averages of 6.95% and 7.43% registered for full-year 1998 and 1999, respectively.

Also See:

Building Materials Price Inflation - September

Consumer Confidence by Region - September

New Residential Building Permits by Region - September

Recent Trends in New Residential Permits for 1999's Top 25 Metro Areas