Employment Trends Index records smallest decline in nearly a year

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index (ETI)™ saw a moderate decline in April. The index now stands at 89.5, decreasing 0.7 percent from the March figure of 90.1, and down 22 percent from a year ago.

“The outlook for employment is much less negative than in prior months, but still it is not likely that employment growth will resume before the final quarter of the year,” said Gad Levanon, senior economist at The Conference Board. “In April, the Employment Trends Index recorded its smallest decline since June 2008, and three of its eight components actually showed an improvement.”

The Employment Trends Index™ aggregates eight labor-market indicators, each of which has proven accurate in its own area. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called “noise” to show underlying trends more clearly. This month, three out of eight components of the Employment Trends Index™ improved. The improving indicators were Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance, Part-Time Workers for Economic Reasons and percentage of respondents who say they find “Jobs Hard to Get.”

The eight labor-market indicators aggregated into the Employment Trends Index™ include:

* Percentage of respondents who say they find “Jobs Hard to Get” (The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Survey)

* Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance (U.S. Department of Labor)

* Percentage of Firms With Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now (© National Federation of Independent Business Research Foundation)

* Number of Employees Hired by the Temporary-Help Industry (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)

* Part-Time Workers for Economic Reasons (BLS)

* Job Openings (BLS)

* Industrial Production (Federal Reserve Board)

* Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales (U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis)

The Conference Board publishes the Employment Trends Index™ monthly, at 10 a.m. ET on the Monday that follows each Friday release of the Bureau of Labor Statistics employment situation report. The technical notes to this series are available on The Conference Board Web site: www.conference-board.org.

About The Conference Board

For over 90 years, The Conference Board has created and disseminated knowledge about management and the marketplace to help businesses strengthen their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board operates as a global independent membership organization working in the public interest. It publishes information and analysis, makes economics-based forecasts and assesses trends, and facilitates learning by creating dynamic communities of interest that bring together senior executives from around the world. The Conference Board is a not-for-profit organization and holds 501(c)(3) tax-exempt status in the United States. For additional information about The Conference Board, visit www.conference-board.org.